QuantOS Daily Pulse
2026-07-24
Macro & Market Regime Context
Business Cycle
Mid Cycle
Mid Cycle: The longest phase of expansion. Growth normalizes to a steady rate, corporate profitability is solid but decelerating, and central banks shift to neutral. Stock market returns moderate and rely more on earnings growth than multiple expansion.
System Liquidity Score90 / 100
S&P 500 Est. Trailing EPS$27.77
S&P 500 Trailing P/E26.6x
Market Regime
CAUTIOUS
CAUTIOUS Regime (18‑signal composite −3 to +2): The market is in a trendless consolidation or mixed-signal environment with measurable warning signs. Moving averages are flattening, breadth is narrowing, or volatility is elevated. The system reduces exposure incrementally to avoid binary whipsaw.
Composite Score+3.97 / 18 signals
Long Multiplier0.50×
Benchmark Performance matrix
Benchmark 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year
SPY +0.10% -0.59% +0.78% +8.94% +17.76% +68.41%
QQQ -1.12% -1.60% -3.71% +11.64% +21.68% +83.79%
SPMO -2.22% +1.82% -4.73% +23.32% +29.21% +163.34%
Macro Indicators Framework (The Quant View)
Released On Period Ending Indicator Type Latest Value Context (Macro & Quant)
2026-07-24 2026-07-23 Yield Curve Spread (10Y-3M) Leading +0.90% Most historically accurate predictor of recessions. Curve inversions signal economic weakness.
We watch the 'uninversion' (steepening) phase. Recessions start when an inverted curve rapidly steepens.
2026-07-24 2026-07-23 Credit Spreads (High Yield OAS) Leading 2.77% High Yield spreads measure extra yield demanded for corporate risk. Spreads widen before equities crash.
The bond market is the 'smart money'. This measures the exact price of systemic stress in real-time.
2026-07-24 2026-07-24 5Y5Y Forward Inflation Exp Leading 2.28% Measures what the bond market believes inflation will average over a 5-year period starting 5 years from now.
If this metric becomes unanchored, the Fed is forced to act aggressively, breaking the business cycle.
2026-07-24 2026-06-01 Building Permits Leading 1374k Housing has massive multiplier effects. Building Permits are a purer leading indicator than Housing Starts.
Interest-rate sensitivity is highest here. Watch permits for structural trend reversals.
2026-07-23 2026-07-18 Initial Jobless Claims Leading 187k Jobless claims are high-frequency and leading, unlike the lagging headline unemployment rate.
We track weekly shifts. A rolling 3-month decline signals labor deterioration before U3 reflects it.
2026-07-23 2026-07-22 Net System Liquidity Leading $5.92T Fed Balance Sheet - TGA - ON RRP. When liquidity rises, asset prices rise. When it falls, volatility spikes.
The 'holy grail' formula for modern market liquidity. Tells us exactly how much 'fuel' is in the engine.
2026-07-22 2026-07-17 Chicago Fed NFCI Coincident -0.552 Composite of 105 financial variables. Negative = Loose/Expansionary; Positive = Tight/Restrictive.
A single, smoothed pulse of whether the financial system is helping or hurting the real economy.
2026-07-17 2026-06-01 Industrial Production: Manufacturing Leading 98.7 Measures real output of U.S. manufacturing. A broad-based, direct pulse on industrial health.
We track YoY momentum. Sustained declines below 95 Index signal manufacturing recession territory.
2026-07-14 2026-06-01 Core CPI (YoY) Lagging 2.8% Measures consumer inflation excluding volatile food and energy. The Fed's primary adversary.
Readings structurally > 3.0% restrict the Fed's ability to supply liquidity during market drawdowns.
2026-07-02 2026-06-01 Headline Unemployment (U3) Lagging 4.2% The official unemployment rate. Note: It historically stays low even as a recession begins.
Used as a lagging confirmation metric. Spikes in U3 usually happen after the recession has already started.
2026-07-02 2026-06-01 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Coincident +57K The headline number of jobs added to the US economy. Highly scrutinized by the Fed.
Consistent numbers < 100K suggest a cooling labor market, raising rate cut probabilities.
2026-06-26 2026-05-01 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Coincident 44.8 Consumer confidence drives spending, which is ~70% of GDP. A forward-looking pulse on household sentiment.
Persistent declines below 70 signal consumer stress that eventually shows up in corporate earnings.
2026-06-25 2026-01-01 Real GDP (QoQ SAAR) Lagging +2.1% Headline measure of economic growth.
Drives earnings expectations and overall market direction.
Leading Sub-Industries (Alpha Generation)
Sub-Industry Ticker Status EMA200 Ext RSI (5 / 14) RS Ratio
Oil & Gas Exploration XOP BULL 11.2% 69.4 / 66.4 65.9
MLPs / Midstream Energy AMLP BULL 7.0% 80.5 / 67.6 63.7
Natural Gas FCG CORRECTING 5.8% 78.3 / 63.9 62.6
Pharmaceuticals IHE BULL EXTENDED 15.6% 65.2 / 61.7 62.3
Banks (Large-Cap) KBWB BULL 12.6% 44.2 / 55.7 61.9
Residential Real Estate REZ BULL 10.2% 65.5 / 62.8 61.7
Insurance KIE BULL 9.7% 62.2 / 61.5 60.3
Regional Banks KRE BULL 10.2% 51.0 / 56.0 59.2
Aerospace & Defense ITA BULL 7.2% 73.4 / 56.8 59.2
Regional Banks (KBW) KBWR NEUTRAL 3.1% 53.2 / 56.1 58.9
Healthcare Providers IHF BULL 13.3% 47.8 / 56.7 58.6
Infrastructure PAVE BULL 7.7% 68.9 / 53.5 58.4
Industrial Real Estate INDS BULL 5.6% 47.8 / 56.3 57.6
Transportation IYT BULL 10.1% 46.0 / 54.8 57.5
Oil Services OIH CORRECTING 5.0% 68.3 / 54.1 56.4
Biotechnology (Nasdaq) IBB BULL 10.5% 44.6 / 53.6 56.1
Digital Payments IPAY NEUTRAL -0.2% 32.4 / 52.2 56.0
Healthcare Technology & Innovation HTEC BULL 8.6% 43.4 / 52.9 55.7
Broker-Dealers & Exchanges IAI BULL 5.7% 38.5 / 50.5 54.1
China Internet KWEB SOLD -12.3% 41.1 / 50.3 52.6
Medical Devices IHI SOLD -7.3% 50.6 / 49.6 51.5
Retail XRT NEUTRAL 3.0% 37.7 / 48.2 51.5
Food & Beverage PBJ NEUTRAL -0.4% 33.7 / 46.5 50.9
FinTech FINX NEUTRAL -4.9% 37.2 / 47.9 50.7
Biotech (Equal-Weight) XBI BULL EXTENDED 15.6% 33.5 / 48.2 50.4
Copper Miners COPX NEUTRAL 1.4% 53.8 / 49.1 50.4
Cybersecurity CIBR BULL EXTENDED 15.2% 31.2 / 46.9 49.2
Gold Miners GDX SOLD -9.8% 56.6 / 47.4 48.7
Junior Gold Miners GDXJ SOLD -10.6% 54.3 / 47.3 48.3
Silver Miners SIL SOLD -9.6% 53.0 / 45.7 46.7
Uranium Miners URNM SOLD -13.7% 57.6 / 44.6 46.0
Airlines JETS BULL 8.2% 40.2 / 43.7 45.5
Media & Gaming PBS NEUTRAL 3.8% 35.4 / 46.0 45.2
Metals & Mining XME NEUTRAL -4.9% 58.4 / 43.5 45.0
Cloud Computing (Infrastructure) SKYY NEUTRAL 4.2% 34.0 / 42.6 44.9
Telecommunications IYZ NEUTRAL 3.6% 41.7 / 42.2 44.7
Travel Tech AWAY NEUTRAL -3.5% 20.2 / 41.9 44.3
Mortgage Real Estate REM NEUTRAL -2.8% 24.1 / 41.6 44.3
Homebuilders ITB NEUTRAL -3.5% 31.1 / 42.0 44.1
Social Media SOCL SOLD -7.9% 23.9 / 41.8 43.9
Video Gaming & Esports ESPO SOLD -6.1% 15.2 / 39.0 43.9
Uranium (Broad) URA SOLD -13.3% 57.9 / 42.7 43.6
Cloud Computing (SaaS) WCLD NEUTRAL 0.9% 16.1 / 41.4 43.4
Sports Betting & iGaming BETZ NEUTRAL -4.3% 23.8 / 39.6 42.1
Semiconductors SMH BULL EXTENDED 16.5% 34.0 / 42.1 42.0
Data Center Real Estate SRVR NEUTRAL -4.8% 52.3 / 36.6 41.8
Video Games & Esports HERO SOLD -9.7% 16.6 / 36.3 41.2
Digital Infrastructure & Real Estate IGN CORRECTING 8.8% 42.2 / 41.3 40.9
Future Vehicles & Auto Tech CARZ CORRECTING 8.5% 35.9 / 40.5 40.1
South Korea EWY CORRECTING 9.1% 34.9 / 39.5 39.9
Software IGV SOLD -5.2% 25.3 / 38.8 39.7
Artificial Intelligence AIQ NEUTRAL 3.9% 28.0 / 37.6 36.2
Internet FDN NEUTRAL -1.5% 13.5 / 35.2 35.0
Clean Energy (Global) ICLN SOLD -5.9% 22.9 / 32.9 31.2
Solar TAN SOLD -7.6% 23.7 / 33.5 31.1
Lithium & Battery Tech LIT SOLD -7.0% 29.9 / 31.0 30.3
Rare Earth & Strategic Metals REMX SOLD -18.6% 22.9 / 26.2 24.4
Major Sector Overview (Core Rotation)
Sector Ticker Status EMA200 Ext RSI (5 / 14) RS Ratio
Energy XLE BULL 10.6% 90.6 / 70.5 68.3
Financials XLF BULL 7.1% 61.2 / 63.4 66.2
Industrials XLI BULL 8.1% 72.9 / 57.6 62.2
Real Estate XLRE BULL 6.4% 77.1 / 62.6 61.4
Healthcare XLV BULL 7.7% 65.4 / 59.9 60.1
Utilities XLU NEUTRAL 3.8% 74.1 / 60.4 60.1
Materials XLB NEUTRAL 3.3% 63.9 / 53.2 56.8
Consumer Staples XLP NEUTRAL 1.4% 49.3 / 50.0 52.6
Technology XLK BULL 9.8% 33.7 / 42.4 42.4
Communications XLC SOLD -5.6% 26.2 / 37.2 38.9
Consumer Discretionary XLY SOLD -5.5% 18.9 / 32.5 29.5

QuantOS Automated Reporting Engine | Generated end-of-day.